The hottest new lake futures LLDPE finally won the

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Xinhu Futures: LLDPE experienced a bitter cold and finally got plum blossom fragrance

upstream newsletter:

nymex12 crude oil futures closed down $2.09, or 3.66%, at $54.95; London Brent crude oil futures for December ended down $1.93, or 3.56%, at $52.31

Asian ethylene closed up recently, with CFR Northeast Asia up $20 to $per ton, and CFR East high-precision ball screw driven by imported motor South Asia up $20 to $per ton

China Plastics price index rose 4.66 points to 771.91 points, and China Plastics spot index rose 6.33 points to 937.78 points

Petrochemical trends:

PetroChina northwest raised its listing price, and its inventory was general; PetroChina East China has general inventory and is listed for sale today; Sinopec Sales Beijing Branch, affected by the production reduction, has less inventory and continues to be listed for sale; Sinopec Sales Shanghai Branch has general PE inventory, which is now listed for sale; Sinopec Sales Guangzhou Branch has general PE inventory, and now it continues to be listed for sale

for data needs with different market conditions, do not click here to add pictures to clarify the same fixture situation:

the market is still higher, but the transaction is less than yesterday, and the current linear line is above 9000 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the settlement price of Sinopec Beijing rose sharply by 1000 yuan/ton, which continued to push up the market. Guangzhou market quotation continued to rise slightly, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere; Shunde market quotation is still on the rise; Maoming 7042 is out of stock

business mentality:

the market hype atmosphere is heating up again, and the quotation is chaotic, mostly retail transactions. Under the premise that the future trend is not clear, traders continue to maintain a cautious mode of operation

disk situation:

today, the main 901 contract of LLDPE of Dalian Commercial Exchange opened with a strong limit of 7115 yuan/ton, and was firmly closed to the limit all day until the closing. A total of 4580 transactions and 1100 positions were increased throughout the day

in depth analysis:

the heaviest mountain on lldep in the previous stage is the full inventory. Since August, a series of measures, such as reducing production, changing production and parking, have effectively digested the inventory. Now, in terms of inventory, it can be said that it has cleared the clouds and seen the sun. In addition, LLDPE fell continuously some time ago, with obvious signs of oversold in the trend, and has accumulated a large amount of rebound demand and energy. It is the so-called "when things reach the extreme, they will turn around". No matter how weak the market is, it is impossible to be infinitely bearish. Whether it's up or down, the software can be customized. If it deviates from the value too far, it must return. Therefore, the rebound of LLDPE this time is reasonable in terms of fundamentals and technology. In addition, the factors that promote this round of rebound market to appear in the situation of continuous rise and limit, as well as the driving role of our "superior sword" of 4trillion investment in providing innovative adhesive solutions to meet the short-term and long-term business development of customers. 4trillion yuan is mainly used for investment in engineering construction and real estate, both of which are related to plastic products. Moreover, the export tax rebate also has a certain degree of beneficial impact. All factors add fuel and raise wages, making the fire more and more prosperous. In addition, recently, the voice of domestic refined oil price reduction is getting higher and higher. It is also a good move for petrochemical companies to raise the sales price of downstream products in order to prepare in advance

however, the overall economic situation is still a game between the two major factors of "Chinese demand" and "global recession". It will take time to decide who wins and who loses. The recent increase of more than 1000 points in LLDPE has been properly corrected for the previous oversold. Therefore, the author believes that it is unlikely to reproduce the fifth limit tomorrow, while the probability of slowing down the rise or covering the gap is relatively high. Investors are not recommended to blindly catch up

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