The hottest new lake futures LLDPE rebounded stron

2022-08-14
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Xinhu Futures: LLDPE rebounded strongly and quickly, rising the limit for two consecutive days

China Plastics price index rose 21.75 points to 1335.27 points, and China Plastics spot index rose 5.78 points to 1314.10 points

upstream newsletter:

the closing price of WTI futures in New York commodity futures trading was $116.00 per barrel, up $2.99 from the previous trading, when the local machine was oil cylinder down

London September Brent crude oil futures rose $2.32, or 2.09%, to $113.47 a barrel, with a trading range between 111 93 dollars

Asian ethylene closed slightly lower, with CFR Northeast Asia falling $20 to $per ton and CFR Southeast Asia falling $20 to $per ton

the US dollar fell slightly against the euro as rising oil prices rekindled concerns about the prospects for us economic growth. However, the US dollar rose against the yen on concerns that high energy prices could further damage the Japanese economy

manufacturer dynamics:

Jilin Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7042; Today's price is stable: 7042 film material is 12800 yuan/ton, 7047 film material is 12800 yuan/ton, 7042 powder material is 12400 yuan/ton, 7047 is 12400 yuan/ton

the price of Shanghai Secco LLDPE is stable: 0209aa is 12900 yuan/ton, 0220aa is 12900 yuan/ton, 0220kj is 13000 yuan/ton

Yangzi Petrochemical's linear unit produces 1802, and plans to switch to 7042 on August 15. The listing price was stable today: 7042 at 12800 yuan/ton, 1802 at 12850 yuan/ton, 1801 at 12800 yuan/ton

Maoming Petrochemical Laogao's experimental data are also more accurate, and the listing price is stable: 7042 at 12600 yuan/ton, 7144 at 13200 yuan/ton, 7042 powder at 12500 yuan/ton, 8916 at 12500 yuan/ton, 8910 at 12500 yuan/ton

local market conditions:

pe market trend has significantly improved, especially for linear materials, with prices rising by more than 300 yuan. Today's transaction is still good, and the factory can't bear to actively participate. The market hype atmosphere was strong, and some traders closed the market to wait and see, and some tried, resulting in some confusion in the market quotation. However, the supply of traders consumed a lot yesterday, and the spot goods are a little tight today. Petrochemical seems to have no principled Limited sales. Current market mainstream price: LLDPE: yuan/ton

the price of Xiamen LLDPE market continues to rise due to the lack of supply, and the merchants basically have no inventory in their hands, so the quotation is very few. Some merchants continue to wait and see while waiting for the settlement price of PetroChina. Some merchants reported that the market price rose significantly yesterday afternoon, traders took more goods, and downstream factories took a little less goods

the linear quotation in Linyi market rose, and traders reflected that the local downstream terminal demand was still general, and Sinopec inventory was still to be digested, so they did not dare to have much hope for this round of rise

business mentality:

traders are confident and have strong intention of reporting high prices. Downstream manufacturers no longer wait and see and begin to tentatively take goods

disk information:

the LLDPE main 901 contract of Dalian Commercial Exchange opened today at 13500 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 13575 yuan/ton, a minimum of 13255 yuan/ton, a closing of 13575 yuan/ton, 37082 transactions and 12730 positions. Shortly after the opening of the morning high jump, it was immediately closed to the trading limit. In the afternoon, it was obvious that there was a sell-off, opening the limit and dropping to the lowest price, but the tail trend still closed at the trading limit. On the whole, the market rebounded strongly today

in depth analysis:

previously, LLDPE prices rebounded rapidly and strongly due to the news of petrochemical production reduction due to the long-term and deep decline (which has reached or even low cost) of LLDPE, the technical oversold, and the strong hype and desire of middlemen and traders to promote. However, at present, the overall commodity futures show a clear sign of bull to bear, and it is uncertain whether LLDPE can stand alone. If the petrochemical production reduction can still be realized gradually according to the rumors, whether the downstream demand can keep up with the continuous rise in prices is the key

from a technical point of view, if the closing price of LLDPE today and tomorrow is above the 20 day moving average, the price may have to get rid of the 12000 line and return to more than 13000 yuan/ton. No, the width of the rectangular cross-section at the clamping end is too wide. If the metal aluminum plate on the surface of the decoration system cannot be closed above the 20 day increase line for three consecutive days, the future trend cannot be too optimistic

in fact, both in terms of fundamentals and technology, the market trend has been oversold, and the rebound is inevitable. It just needs a suitable fuse to trigger the explosion. The initial implementation of petrochemical production reduction appropriately acts as a spark that the market has been looking forward to for a long time at this time

whether the downstream factories enter the market to fully replenish their positions and whether the demand can really start is the key to the next trend

operation suggestions: multi orders that catch the rebound can leave today

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