The probability of short-term inventory increase o

2022-08-05
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The probability of short-term inventory increase is small, and the decline is limited. The short-term decline is expected to stop.

since November, under the background of the strength of the entire industrial products sector to varying degrees, Shanghai aluminum has fallen sharply due to Wei Qiao's exemption from the peak load shifting and production restriction in winter, the destocking is not as expected, the failure of the expectation of the owner of goods to bet on the rise, the pressure of realizing and repaying loans and other factors. However, the author believes that there is limited room for Shanghai aluminum to fall, and the short-term decline is expected to stop

output is expected to maintain a slow decline trend

as the hot spot of supply side reform this year, the story of aluminum ingot supply side is accompanied by a series of factors such as environmental protection shutdown, index replacement, cost rise, etc. Recently, it was confirmed that after Shandong Province asked Weiqiao group to shut down the illegal production capacity in July this year, the production capacity of 2.53 million tons originally limited in the heating season was exempted. In addition, other relevant enterprises still substantially implement or advance the winter production restriction policy. In combination with the previous illegal inventory and shutdown of about 4million tons of production capacity, we believe that although the decline in operating capacity in November is not as expected, the aluminum output will maintain a slow decline

downstream demand did not worsen as expected

environmental protection shutdown superimposed seasonal off-season. From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales dropped by 2.1 percentage points compared with that from January to September. From January to October, China's automobile production and sales increased by 4.27% and 4.13% year-on-year, 0.5% and 0.33% slower than that from January to September respectively. The demand growth of the two downstream industries continued to decline. Although the performance was poor, it basically continued the previous expectations and did not deteriorate beyond the expectations

the probability of short-term inventory increase is small

the data of domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory has slight deviation due to the caliber problem. Cut off 3. Trial operation: select an appropriate speed to make the experimental machine run up and down for 1 day. It will basically remain above 1.6 million tons until November 24. It will be basically stable in the near future. At the same time, the operation of extracting aluminum water during the shutdown of electrolytic cell also delayed the process of de stocking to a certain extent. The aluminum ingot inventory of the futures exchange in the previous period continued to increase, approaching the 700000 ton mark. The aluminum rod inventory continued to pursue the dream of building a resource-saving society with aluminum and copper. Due to the continuous decline in Foshan, it has dropped to about 110000 tons since the peak of 220000 tons in the middle of the year

on the whole, the current spot inventory pressure is still large. However, with the implementation of staggering peak production in winter, the seasonal transportation capacity in Xinjiang is tight, and the willingness of the downstream to replenish the inventory after the aluminum price falls, the probability of continued increase in short-term inventory is small. However, considering the long cycle, the inventory will accumulate again during the Spring Festival, so the de stocking in the remaining time before the Festival becomes a key factor. LME inventory data shows that overseas supply and demand is relatively tight, which is good for exports to a certain extent. However, due to the interference caused by the warehouse transfer operation, it cannot be determined

it is expected to stabilize after the short-term continuous decline.

at present, the aluminum price has quickly dropped to less than 15000 yuan/ton, which has released the anxiety of the market. The absolute price has retreated to the level at the end of 2016. Therefore, after a round of decent adjustment, the aluminum price returned to the cost area, so the industry was the most mature, and the downstream demand elasticity was expected to recover. At the same time, in the last two months, the basis has slowly strengthened by about 100 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot easing situation has slowed down. It has cultivated a batch of leading enterprises with independent intellectual property rights and strong core competitiveness, characteristic new material enterprises, high-tech enterprises and technology-based enterprises. Pay attention to the de stocking before the holiday and whether the basis can continue to strengthen

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